Guesstimating Blinkit's future.

The management of Eternal expects a 60% growth rate (CAGR) in Blinkit's Net order value (NOV) over the next 3 years, so I tried to break it down into pieces.

Used numbers from company filings and Industry research in Zepto's UDRHP.

Presently, the market size of quick commerce is INR ~1 Lakh Cr., out of which INR 50k Cr. is held by Blinkit.

From the macro point of view, Quick commerce market size is estimated to reach INR 5-7 Lakh Crs.

If we take 60% CAGR for next 3-4 years, NOV of blinkit is likely to be INR ~3 Lakh Crores by FY2030.

If we keep these numbers on a pie chart, currently Blinkit holds 50% market share, and by FY2030 it will likely be 43-60%.

From the KPIs, Blinkit:

has 2400+ Dark stores in 250+ cities.

That comes out to be roughly daily sales per dark store of more than INR 8 Lakhs, and approx 1500 orders per day.

On average a user places 41 orders per year with an average order value of INR 518.

So if they are targeting a 60% CAGR over the next 3 years.

Firstly, they are increasing their geographical footprint by expanding dark stores, ~750 to be added in FY27. So if assume simlar dark stores expansion in coming years, 25% growth can be driven by geographical expansion.

To reach CAGR of 60%, they still have to grow their daily sales per dark store by ~25%, which is already hovering around 8 Lakhs.

I could see many stores opening in Tier-3 cities and towns, how would they contribute to the average will be exciting to look forward, if the company shares geographical breakdown of their sales.

A dark store in a Tier-3 or 4 city where the population is below 50000, and families around 10-12.5k, doing daily sales of INR 8-10 Lakhs with more than 1500 daily orders of >INR 500 on average. Hmmmm....