Framework of a changing World Order

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Why it is most likely certain that CHINA is going to be the next SUPER POWER?

The graph attached below carries within a plethora of insights from the last 500 Years!



The graph by Ray Dalio depicts the smoothened out way of the past SUPER POWERS of how they reached their peak?

Dutch, British, USA and.......now China most likely to be next!!


Ray used 8 metrics to measure the total power which is derived by averaging the metrics together.


The First one is EDUCATION


which leads to 

- Innovation and Technology development

- Competitiveness in global markets,

- Economic output

- Share of world trade

- Military strength 

- the power of their Financial center for capital markets


And then the Final one is "the establishment of their currency as a RESERVE CURRENCY"


Adding some metrics into the same:


Metric - USA/CHINA/INDIA


Literacy rate - 79%/99.83%/76.32%

Patents Filed - 6 Lakh/16 Lakh/1 Lakh

Scientific Publications - 4.2 Lakh/5.3 Lakh/1.35 Lakh

Military Strength - 1st/3rd/4th

Exports - $2 Tn/$3.3 Tn/$0.78 Tn

Foreign Exchange Reserve - 59.79%/2.76%/ -

Most Traded Currencies - 44.15%/2.16%/ -


China's progress seems to correlate with the framework provided by Dalio.


China educated its citizens, provided them with adequate skills so that they can become an manufacturing hub, export hub and compete at global stage with USA. Be it production, innovation or sports.


India will eventually have to climb the same long path, starting with educating the citizens. The new education policy is much sought after as a push to the same. However, the budget allocation currently (~3%) is much lower in comparison to what is recommended by NEP (6%).


I would highly recommend watching "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order" by Ray Dalio who is a fund manager at the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates. Its an absolute cinema power packed with knowledge that can give you a fresh perspective of looking at politics and geopolitics.


hashtag#geopolitics hashtag#investing

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