Reality of EV Dreams of Tata Motors

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Reading about Tata Motors Ltd (TML) and global auto industry reveals a defining shift in global auto industry.


Tata Motors is making one of the boldest EV pivots in the auto industry — but is the market ready?

- Discontinued the whole Jaguar Lineup, up for new electric models

- Targeting 60% electrification of Land Rover by 2030


This pivot is massive when seen through the current brand structure:


JLR is ~70% of TML


Jaguar is ~7-12% of JLR

Land Rover is ~90% of JLR


Now EV pivot means

(10% + (90%*60%)) = 64% of JLR as against 13% currently

That's ~50% of JLR being Electirfied (incremental)

Which is, 50%*70% = ~35% of TML


The management has decided to incrementally electrify the 35% revenue of TML.


If we look at industry numbers, the grave reality comes up:

Out of 1.7 Cr sales in 2024, 

- 1.1 Cr sold in China

- 30 Lakhs in Europe

- 15 Lakhs in USA

That’s a 65% global share concentrated in China.

(Source: IEA)


Growth in Europe and USA has already been plateaued in 2023 and 2024.

The whole growth of EV Story is sustained by significant growth in China - whopping 40% yoy in 2024.


What share does China contribute in JLR's revenue - 18% in FY2025, which falling constantly from 23% in FY2022. 


And Chinese EV market is a tough nut to crack, even already established Tesla is struggling due to domestic players.


To make things worse, the new policies of west (lead by the USA) are rolling back EV mandates and subsidies.


With >80% revenue in low growth regions, the aggressive electrification decision of JLR by TML's management doesn't make sense economically - atleast in short to medium term.

There's more to this story - from regulatory pressure to environmental responsibility - but the numbers just doesn't add up.

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