EV 2W industry

Govt. flooding the sector with subsidies

Startups boomed

Unicorns born

IPOs and Consolidations followed

But, Traditional veterans eventually dethroned them.

The EV 2-wheeler industry has not been less than a dramatic roller coaster ride

Had closely read the 2 industry leaders - Ola and Ather

After the listing of Ola last year, Ather's IPO is coming this week, it's time to recall and articulate some learning:

1. Govt. support - Huge support but declining

Huge subsidies firstly through FAME 1 & 2, and then PM-edrive, PLI incentives offering 13-18% of the sales. Govt. has done its part really well

2. Past coasters-

Ola became market leader with its product offerings combined with huge marketing and government support (~21% share in FY2023, ~35% in FY2024, 30% in Fy2025), but fell to 18% by Q4-FY2025. Ather steadily grew to 11–12% with high-quality products.

Interestingly, traditional veterans like Bajaj, TVS, and Hero, eventually captured ~55% share in Q4-FY25 (45% for full FY25).

3. Future outlook (Bhavishya-vani):

Sales of 2-wheelers:

FY2024 - 1.84 Cr units (18.4 million)

9m-FY2025 - 1.53 Cr

And as per Crisil research (Ather RHP), sales are estimated to be ~3 Cr. by FY2030 at CAGR (Growth rate) of 7-8%

Now the exciting part,

Sales of EV 2-wheelers:

FY2024 - 9.5 Lakh (5.2% of total)

9m-FY2025 - 8.5 Lakh (5.6%)

Now, even if overall industry is estimated to have a normal growth rate of 7-8%, EVs are estimated to have a CAGR of 40-42% as against a growth rate of 0-2% in ICE (Fuel) vehicles

And just to corroborate that, in recent years, ICE 2w has shown -ve growth and the industry is sustained by growth in EV 2w sales.

In other words, today the market share of EV is a mere 5-6%, it is expected to increase to 30-35% (approx 1 Cr units sold), being the main driving force of the industry.

Now, it is relatively easier to project the sales volume of individual companies:

For example: 20% market share of Ola in 2030 would be - 1 Cr * 20% = 20 Lakh units -> 1.67 Lakh units per month.

4. Raw Material - Battery:

We have 3 problems regarding this:

Cost, life and source.

Battery constitutes 35-40% of the cost of an EV

Limitations of Life is often counted as big negative while purchasing an EV

Good news is it's getting affordable and better year over year, thanks to technology advancements

Presently, nearly all of the cells are being imported, majorly from China.

But thanks to the PLI scheme from govt., India is expected to become self-sufficient in years to come.

However, the dependency on imported raw materials (like Li-ion, Nickel, Cobalt) will remain a challenge that needs to be addressed.

5. Points to consider:

Rise of alternative fuels (e.g., CNG)

Development of EV charging infra

Entry of overseas players

The EV 2W industry is no longer a startup play - it’s a battleground now led by seasoned veterans - with technology, policy, and execution as the key differentiators.