Posts

Guesstimating Blinkit's future.

-
Image
The management of Eternal expects a 60% growth rate (CAGR) in Blinkit's Net order value (NOV) over the next 3 years, so I tried to break it down into pieces. Used numbers from company filings and Industry research in Zepto's UDRHP. Presently, the market size of quick commerce is INR ~1 Lakh Cr., out of which INR 50k Cr. is held by Blinkit. From the macro point of view, Quick commerce market size is estimated to reach INR 5-7 Lakh Crs. If we take 60% CAGR for next 3-4 years, NOV of blinkit is likely to be INR ~3 Lakh Crores by FY2030. If we keep these numbers on a pie chart, currently Blinkit holds 50% market share, and by FY2030 it will likely be 43-60%. From the KPIs, Blinkit: has 2400+ Dark stores in 250+ cities. That comes out to be roughly daily sales per dark store of more than INR 8 Lakhs, and approx 1500 orders per day. On average a user places 41 orders per year with an average order value of INR 518. So if they are targeting a 60% CAGR over the next 3 years...
Post a Comment
Read more

Hugging face - from $7Bn to $12.9Bn in 7 months

-
Image
In January 2026, Hugging Face - the playground of AI Developers, where they experiment, build things - turned down an investment offer from Nvidia of $500 Mn at $7Bn valuations. "While declining to comment on Nvidia’s offer, the company said it does not want a single dominant investor that could sway decisions." Co-founder of Hugging face publically states that concentration of Power is the biggest threat to AI. 7 months later, Reuters report - Nvidia agrees to buy the same playground for $12.9 Bn. Why? Hugging face and it's founder, who were against concentration of power and advocated Open models- what changed in those 7 months? Most people are just labelling it hypocrisy and the increased offer (by $5.9Bn) as a "price" for their stance on AI. Or is there something more, behind the scenes? What if the founders saw what's coming and the bid by Nvidia was just to get an established player in its suite rather than building scratch up. ...
Post a Comment
Read more

The story changed and hence the value - TVF

-
Image
Prof. Aswath Damodaran introduced me to valuations back in 2023 before my Articleship, before I knew that such a field exists for CA articles. Instead of teaching formulas and numbers crunching, he starts with - what is a valuation? Is it an art or science? And in this he explains the magic of narrative behind every valuation, THE STORY. Read this (a transcript from one of his videos) "With young companies, it's all about the story. When I valued Uber in June of 2014, this was a startup, still a young company losing a lot of money. My entire valuation was built around my story about Uber being an urban car service company. That drove my entire valuation. And when I finished my valuation, Bill Gurley, venture capitalist, leading investor in Uber, said, "You got the story all wrong. Uber is not a car service company. It's a logistics company." Notice how words have consequences. By using the word logistics, what's he done? He's tripled the size of his busin...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Truth Social of DJT

-
Image
Anybody who's active in geopolitics must be aware of the waves that US president makes in the markets by his words (speeches and social media posts) He has his own social media platform - Truth Social, where he's active and makes statements before any policy. For ex. - In April 2025, he posted "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT" hours before announcing a tariff pause (NPR) that spiked markets. From August 1, 2026 - they started selling Truth API (@ $100,000), which will provide fast access to his posts to the buyers. A normal retail investor will be able to access those on the app, but the API buyers will get them directly on their systems through API.  Making the API buyers (most likely big institutions) ahead, maybe only a few seconds - but even that matters alot, specially for algo traders. This API may not be illegal, and is a business practice followed by other platforms too, but in this case Truth Social is not any other social media platform which shares news...
Post a Comment
Read more

Ather Energy Revisited

-
Image
I revisited Ather Energy after more than a year and the story has become even more interesting. Ather instead of slowing down as it matures doubled its revenue growth in FY2026 to 63% from 29% in FY2025. This time I found some intersting tits and bits in the industry: 1. Service Centres are the real moat - this is the reason why TVS and Bajaj became the top 2, they have an already established base; the reason why Ola lost >50% of their volume in a year; also the reason why ather has expanded its stores from 351 to 700 in a year. The product has almost became a commodity already like other 2 wheelers, the moat is after sales service. 2. More than half the market is unserved - More than 50% of Indian 2 wheelers market is motorcycles, with rarely any good EV 2W Motorcycle in the market - there's a gap, a huge one. 3. Import dependence - EVs though solving the environment problem, are not solving our import dependence problem - we are still dependent on China for Cells (>95% impo...
Post a Comment
Read more

Academics with Dev - Post 3: Audit

-
Image
This strategy will turn Audit into S from W in your SWOT AUDIT This subject has been the nightmare of every CA I have ever met. So, I knew this one's gonna be tough. I knew the problem I broke it down First - I had a concept book of 300 pages which I have to literally cram word by word. Second - While solving questions, it gets confusing what topic is asked, reading question bank multiple times solves this So I developed a strategy Massed Practice + Spaced Revision Before we start: 1. This strategy gives you structure, it is not meant to be a trick or shortcut 2. It will be very boring 3. It will take a lot of your time, but if executed right you'll thank yourself later Here we go, read this with the graph attached: I divided the syllabus into 42 parts that comes to an average of 7 pages a day. 1. 6 days Massed practice: Start with 1 part per day The topic you start on Day 1 - revise that on Day 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Also, read the questions of related topic on alternate days of these ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Academics with Dev - Post 2: Faculties

-
2nd most asked question: Which faculties? Here's my honest candid review 1. FR - Aakash Kandoi sir FR is huge, too huge Classes are mix of concepts + written practice + a right amount of fun, as FR gets boring at times and he understand students well - thus he rightly adds pinch of motivation, stories & songs to maintain attention. After sales: (10/10) Doubt Support is good - ask direct questions over telegram For revision - AKs YouTube videos are very good Additional questions were provided of further attempts. Question bank is a little scattered, can be better structured, but definitely not a deal breaker 2. AFM Started classes with Sanjay Saraf sir - have a mixed review Content - well the best in the industry, he goes beyond formula cramming and the classes are really insightful. But at one point the classes became a burden to complete because of length of classes and the amount of content. After sales: (2/10) Doubt Support is complex - you have to signup on a forum etc....
Post a Comment
Read more